“In like a lion, out like a lamb.” Sometimes.

I think I first heard this weather proverb in kindergarten. Ever since, every March, I’ve done my own personal evaluation of its truth.

This year, on March 5, we got 12 inches of heavy, wet snow — the kind that demands lion-like strength (or at least a good two-stage snowblower). So far, the proverb seemed on track. Then, on March 17, the local weather forecasters predicted another 6–10 inches of snow for midweek. On March 20, they backtracked—no snow, no accumulation. It’s still cold, though, and the lamb’s arrival remains uncertain.

I consulted Wikipedia on the Lion-Lamb proverb and found the following explanations – one from historians and one from weather forecasters:

Historians: The saying is weather folklore that stems from ancestral beliefs in balance, suggesting that if the month starts with bad weather, it should end with good weather.

Hmm, “balance.” Sounds like a novice gambler’s belief that “The coin flip came up tails three times so the next one has to be heads.” March is our transition month from winter to spring, but I have never expected any balance, just untimely and inconvenient bad weather during the state hockey and basketball tournaments.

Weather forecasters: March is known for its unpredictable weather, with the possibility of snowstorms, severe weather, and then transitioning to warmer, spring-like temperatures.

But in the end, this is the reason I enjoy March in Minnesota – it’s unpredictable. We can usually still ice fish – unless the lamb is early – and the most unpredictable event in sports, March Madness, reliably gets underway. March in Minnesota is fun in an athletic sort of way due to the prediction challenges.

“Fun” is not always the word a CEO wants to hear during a sales forecast or portfolio review, but it is appropriate when dealing with unpredictable situations – like customer price acceptance, credit underwriting and delinquency forecasting. Prediction guides us through unpredictability, but we must be prepared for all outcomes. Sometimes this means hedging risk; sometimes, strictly avoiding certain situations; and sometimes, just having a Plan B.

Never put your snow shovels back in the attic until May, always include at least two 12-seed upsets, and be emotionally agile enough to enjoy dealing with whatever the lion brings.

And, keep the ibuprofen out on the counter just in case.