When The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation released the December 2024 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) report, the forecasts were bright to say the least. This is welcome news and further lifts everyone’s confidence. The last few years of record inflation and high interest rates have transformed the equipment finance ecosystem. What some consider “another typical transportation downturn” has been accompanied by what is likely a lasting retreat by banks as the industry’s primary funders.
Since I often write about fishing, it would be safe to assume that I am an avid fisherman. I like the fishing metaphor because I find so many ways in which business is like fishing: casting different products or services to “reel in” a customer, choosing the best pool/market on the river to fish, deciding how many casts is enough before moving on, and, of course, always looking to catch that big one.
Also, not a surprise, then, is that Earnest Hemmingway’s “The old man and sea” was one of my favorite high school literature assignments. I thought of Hemingway as soon as the “tide has turned” phrase came to me while reading the ELFF headline. The old man in Hemmingway’s story – Santiago – was in a big-time slump when he went out on that fateful day, like lenders in a high-interest rate economy. But when the big fish finally came Santigo wasn’t adequately prepared. He headed out without his apprentice. The quality of his tackle, his location at the time of the hook up, and the currents all became part of his epic struggle. I don’t recall the angle I took in my original book report, but in this case, I think we can learn from Santiago a couple of tactics on how to prepare to catch success when the tide turns for the better.
Where are you headed?
The most important thing to know when heading out into the opportunity-rich markets of an economic upturn is “Where are we going? Where do we want to be three years from now?” Is simple revenue growth the primary focus or is this a time to redesign and rebuild? During business upturns a lot of things get easier, particularly cash flow. A key decision is whether to use that cash flow to fund more of the same and maybe capture share or rebuild parts of the operational platform to improve competitive advantage for the long term.
Today this can be a question answered with data analytics. Extending the fishing analogy here requires a few things not available to Santiago: weather data, water temperature, position and sonar sensors integrated with mapping data, and fish locators. Business intelligence and analytics help an enterprise identify and value the risks of financing new assets, engaging in new geographic markets, or new sales channels. Businesses that have access to this kind of data can head out with more purpose and confidence that their existing business practices will put food on the table while exploring new territory looking for bigger fish. Those that don’t have access to the data or analytics, have an opportunity to change that.
Market upturns are a great time for growth, but simply moving with the competition – a rising tide raises all boats - doesn’t create sustained competitive advantage. An “easier” market is also a great time to upgrade the boat, the operating platform. Rebuild for the long term with software upgrades, new go-to-market partnerships that create differentiation, and new technologies that improve both workflow and results building long-term competitive strength.
Where are you on the water?
When the destination is identified, the next step is to take stock of the enterprise - self-assess. How is the business performing; measured against both internal and external expectations? Which assets make up the core of the business? Which assets make up the most profit – the two may not align. In which markets is there success and are those markets going to “rise with the tide” or slow against it? I always check the weather, river flow levels, and my fly box before I head out. Readiness is a key to any fishing expedition and every business plan pivot.
Part of the fishing metaphor here is “how far from shore are we” and “how deep is the water?” Smaller companies often have fewer resources and less capital, but they are also able to just “get out of the boat and fix things.” Repairs are less expensive and easier - fewer contracts to migrate to and fewer systems to overhaul. If the business is in “deep water,” then maybe the strategy must maintain the core platform but add key functional sub-systems that improve performance and competitive strength. Fisherman have always been inundated with new baits to throw but these days add-ons are almost always new sensors and new data streams. The same is true for equipment finance. Syndication, underwriting, and prospecting are all functions for which technology add-ons are now available.
Agility is always a competitive advantage in times of change. Small companies are naturally agile because they have less to change – less mass. But larger platforms can also have agility via a cloud-based, modular architecture that enables them to keep up with faster little boats.
Who’s in the boat with you? Do you have what you need to get where you’re going?
With the objective and strategy set, next comes operational preparedness - something Santiago failed to do before heading out. Do we have everything in the boat that we need to succeed? Are the right customers, vendor partners, and employees on board or available? Look to tools like the Business Model Canvas to help quickly assess preparedness and identify additional resources needed to implement strategy.
Two common gaps we see with customers at times like these are digital technology and capital market partnerships. The former is typically a gap due to lack of investment and/or a fear of change. Unfortunately, technology gaps are quickly becoming existential, and the longer leadership waits the farther they fall behind competitors who can test the waters and engage new customers. There aren’t any bass boats without electronics on the professional circuit anymore.
Funding has become a challenge for many due to the changes in the funding environment over the past five years as banks have pulled back due to a combination of high interest rates and regulatory challenges. The good news is that there is a new funding group entering the market, private capital. Funding is relationship-based and does not always come quickly. Fortunately, technology and funding are not just compatible, but collaborative in the case of private capital. A recent Monitor Suite article highlights how new digital systems support developing funding relationships with private capital partners who are more data-driven than traditional banks. Investing in data aggregation and business intelligence will support the faster development of new funding relationships and, of course, access to funding is the first step in acquiring new customers. Getting the right crew in the boat may not be as hard as one might think.
Heading out on the rising tide

Hemingway’s The Old Man and the Sea is a must-read for any young angler, but it’s also a good read for a business leader when the tide turns as it has recently in equipment finance. Old man Santiago was not as prepared as he needed to be when opportunity came knocking and he had to fall back on personal strength and raw perseverance to stay in the fight with the great fish. His epic struggle highlights the importance of clarity of purpose, an awareness of both the performance and preparedness of the enterprise, and a roll call of who’s in the boat before heading out on a rising tide. In all cases, more and better organized data support stronger analytics that are critical to landing the “big fish.”