Our marketing team was brainstorming topics for this month’s blog post. Our
team suggested using Groundhog Day as a trigger to talk about AI. I agreed to
see if I could connect the two. Groundhog Day is naturally of interest to
Tamarack because we have an outdoor, animal-friendly brand and everyone knows
that both Groundhogs and AI are in the prediction business.
So, I started researching both Groundhogs and Groundhog Day. The first thing I
found out was that Groundhog Day didn’t start with Groundhogs. The practice
originated in Germany where they relied upon hedgehogs like Ollie, pictured
above, to come out and pass judgement on the pending arrival of spring. When
Germans made their way over to Pennsylvania in the mid-1800’s they discovered
that hedgehogs like Ollie were hard to find so they switched to Ollie’s more
available cousin - the Groundhog - to help with spring weather forecasting. On
February 2, 1887, the first Punxsutawney Phil provided his opinion at
Gobbler’s Knob (home to Punxsutawney Phil).
At this point, my mind was cluttered with ideas about how to relate Groundhog
to AI. The obvious connection is that they can both are used for prediction. I
can cast a company’s dark data as a shadow from which they could predict the
future just like Phil could predict spring. Maybe 20 generations of
Groundhogs, living seven years on average, have embedded their weather
forecasting learning experiences into a form of genetic memory that serves as
a machine learning model and giving Groundhogs a natural ability to forecast
temperatures. Maybe the whole process was really just a roll-of-the-dice that
was occasionally correct. Taxpayers have paid for multiple federally funded
studies to show that Punxsutawney Phil is only correct 39 percent of the time
– much less accurate than the National Climatic Data Center. (The forecasting
accuracy of the NCDC is not provided.)
So then, I switched my focus to Gobbler Knob’s most well-known story about
predicting spring – Bill Murray co-starring with Punxsutawney Phil and Andie
McDowell in “Groundhog Day.” Perhaps there could be better AI content here.
Afterall, Murray was learning from an indefinite series of repeated
experiences. He learned how to avoid puddles and old classmates, recite French
poetry, play the piano, and in general, be a nicer person. This was promising.
AI predictors
can help finance companies
avoid past mistakes, explore new markets, and make more money with better risk
management. But these were all from the movie and required some kind of
undefined time travel to make the learning happen. In reality, time travel,
for now, is really behind schedule.
At this point, I decided to get some help. I had read that
students were writing
papers using AI by having ChatGPT write things like, a “500-word essay on the
18th-century philosopher David Hume and the paradox of horror.” I thought I
would give my blog assignment a try. If ChatGPT could write a philosophy
paper, why not a Groundhog post? I doubted that anyone could tell if I wrote
it. So, I created an account and logged into ChatGPT.
Using ChatGPT was an experience I would recommend to anyone interested in the
power of AI. The question box came up, so I started asking questions:
Click a bullet point to see the ChatGPT response
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How is Groundhog Day like AI?
-
What if groundhogs had genetic memory to help predict the weather?
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Could a groundhog be more accurate than AI in predicting weather?
Then I switched to giving instructions:
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Write me a blog post on groundhogs and prediction
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Write me a funny story about a groundhog using AI to predict spring
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Compare a groundhog predicting winter to an AI predicting weather
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Prove to me that groundhogs can predict spring weather
-
Craft an argument for how a groundhog could be more accurate than an AI
predicting the arrival of spring
-
Write a funny story about a groundhog who is more accurate than AI
predicting the weather
In about 15 minutes I generated 3,000 words of well-crafted, grammatically
perfect, moderately interesting prose. (If you’d like to read them, click
here)
In those 15 minutes I came away with three learnings:
1. The outputs of AI agents are only as good as the people using it.
Each time I asked a question or gave a command I got a result that made me
think of other ways to instruct, or other questions to ask. My ChatGPT stories
got better, funnier, and more persuasive.
Like big data, AI only has value to those who know good questions to ask or good
assignments to make.
2. AI can accelerate innovation.
The stories and answers I got from this exercise came so fast that I found
myself asking more questions, trying different words, different angles – I was
innovating. AI is not inherently innovative, it can be assigned mundane,
repetitive tasks just like any automation product. But when it is used to
explore, try new things, to learn it will drive workflow innovation much
faster than humans alone.
3. If you’re afraid of AI then you don’t know how it really works.
Those who are afraid AI tools like ChatGPT don’t understand how AI really
works. I remember when I was a freshman in college in the late 1970’s the
college English department had some professors who would not allow us to do
our writing assignments on the campus computer. This was before personal
computers and word processing applications, but they had the notion that
printing out our essays on the line printer of the PDP 1170 was somehow
cheating. They only accepted papers typed on one of the media center’s IBM
Selectrics or a personal typewriter. I couldn’t afford the former and didn’t
want to wait for the latter. Fortunately, about that time the Math department
bought some NEC Spinwriters that could print on plain paper with a typewriter
striking motion. Problem solved. I never used a typewriter in college and I
got an A- in English 20.
AI, like line printers driven by main frame computers, enables the inquisitive
and innovative among us to produce more and better outcomes faster. Those
worried about “cheating” with AI are using the wrong measures. The right
measures should be learning and the quality of critical thinking. ChatGPT
wrote me a very persuasive argument for why Groundhogs with natural instinct,
genetic memory, and vast array of sensory power could out predict the
computationally, yet data limited, power of AI. By the way, I introduced the
concept of “genetic memory” three commands earlier. The argument did have a
disclaimer at the end:
“This is a fictional story and it is not meant to be taken seriously.”
Well, that is my Groundhog Day and AI story. Hopefully it entertains,
educates, and provokes additional thinking. Give ChatGPT a try if you have not
already. My grandkids are always asking me to tell them stories before they go
to bed. I was starting to run out of ideas, but I have a new approach in mind.
ChatGPT’s funny “How is a Groundhog better than AI” story made me smile.
Hopefully you agree.
Groundhog Day and AI are not directly related, as Groundhog Day is a
traditional holiday that is based on the belief that a groundhog's
behavior can predict the arrival of spring, while AI is a technology
that uses algorithms and data to perform tasks and make predictions.
However, there are a few similarities between the two:
-
Both involve making predictions: Groundhog Day relies on the belief
that a groundhog's behavior can predict the arrival of spring, while
AI uses data and algorithms to make predictions about various
phenomena such as weather, consumer behavior, and financial markets.
-
Both involve patterns and trends: Groundhogs use patterns in their
behavior to predict the arrival of spring, while AI uses patterns in
data to make predictions.
-
Both can improve over time: Groundhogs can learn and improve their
predictions over time by observing and adapting to the changing
seasons. Similarly, AI systems can improve over time by learning
from new data and refining their algorithms.
Overall, while Groundhog Day and AI are not directly related, they
share some similarities in terms of making predictions and identifying
patterns.
It is theoretically possible that groundhogs could have a genetic
memory that helps them predict the weather, however, there is
currently no scientific evidence to support this idea.
Genetic memory refers to the idea that traits or behaviors can be
passed down through generations through genetic information. However,
this concept is still the subject of ongoing research and is not yet
fully understood by scientists.
In theory, if groundhogs had a genetic memory that helped them predict
the weather, it would likely involve the ability to recognize patterns
in the weather and respond accordingly. For example, a groundhog with
a genetic memory for predicting the weather might have the ability to
sense changes in temperature or barometric pressure and use this
information to predict the arrival of spring.
However, as previously mentioned, there is no scientific evidence that
groundhogs have this kind of genetic memory and it's not a proven
fact, it is just a hypothetical scenario. The forecasting of weather
is a complex process that relies on a variety of scientific data and
analysis, and it is not based on the behavior of a single animal.
It is unlikely that a groundhog could be more accurate than an AI in
predicting weather. While groundhogs are able to sense changes in
temperature and weather, they are not able to analyze and process the
large amount of data and information that an AI can.
Artificial intelligence, with its ability to process and analyze vast
amounts of data, can provide much more accurate and reliable weather
predictions than a groundhog. It can take into account various factors
such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and pressure, as well as
historical data and patterns to make predictions.
Moreover, the groundhog's predictions are based on a tradition and a
legend, not on scientific data. While the Groundhog Day tradition is
fun and entertaining, it is not a serious weather forecasting method.
In conclusion, while a groundhog's predictions may be based on some
level of instinctual understanding of weather, an AI's predictions are
based on a much more sophisticated analysis of data and information
and will likely be more accurate.
Groundhog Day is a traditional holiday celebrated in the United States
and Canada on February 2nd. According to legend, if a groundhog
emerges from its burrow on this day and sees its shadow, it will
retreat back into its burrow, predicting six more weeks of winter
weather. If the groundhog does not see its shadow, it is said to
predict an early spring. The most famous groundhog used for this
prediction is Punxsutawney Phil, located in Punxsutawney,
Pennsylvania.
The origins of Groundhog Day can be traced back to ancient European
weather forecasting traditions, where a badger or bear was used as a
predictor of spring. German immigrants brought the tradition to the
United States in the 18th and 19th centuries, replacing the animal
with the native groundhog.
Despite its long history and popular culture, the accuracy of the
groundhog's prediction is debatable. According to the Stormfax
Almanac, Punxsutawney Phil's predictions have been correct in 39% of
cases since 1887. However, some meteorologists argue that the
groundhog's predictions are based on poor science and that weather
patterns are better predicted by modern technology.
Despite the accuracy of the predictions, Groundhog Day continues to be
a popular tradition, with many people gathering at Punxsutawney Phil's
burrow to watch the groundhog's emergence and hear the prediction.
Once upon a time, deep in the heart of the forest, there was a curious
groundhog named George. George had always been fascinated by the
predictions made on Groundhog Day, but he couldn't help feeling that
there had to be a better way to predict the weather.
One day, while out foraging for food, George stumbled upon a strange
object lying in the grass. It was a small device, with a screen and
buttons on it. George picked it up and examined it closely, wondering
what it could be.
As he was looking at the device, a voice suddenly spoke from it.
"Hello, I am an artificial intelligence," the voice said. "I can help
you predict the weather with much more accuracy than a mere
groundhog's shadow."
George was amazed. He had never heard of such a thing before. He asked
the AI how it could help him.
"I can analyze weather patterns and data from all over the world to
give you the most accurate predictions possible," the AI explained.
George was excited. He knew that this could be the key to making the
most accurate weather predictions ever. He thanked the AI and promised
to put it to good use.
The following Groundhog Day, George emerged from his burrow with the
AI device in tow. The crowd gathered around him, eager to hear his
prediction. George took a deep breath and announced, "According to my
calculations, there will be six more weeks of winter."
The crowd was amazed. George's prediction was spot on! From that day
on, George was known as the most accurate weather predictor in the
forest, all thanks to his trusty AI companion.
And so, George and the AI lived happily ever after, helping the
animals of the forest to prepare for the changing seasons.
A groundhog predicting winter and an AI predicting weather are two
very different methods of forecasting.
A groundhog's prediction is based on a legend and tradition that
states if the groundhog sees its shadow on Groundhog Day, it will
retreat back into its burrow, predicting six more weeks of winter
weather. If the groundhog does not see its shadow, it is said to
predict an early spring. However, this prediction is not based on
scientific data or analysis, and the accuracy of the prediction is
debatable.
On the other hand, an AI predicting weather uses advanced technology
and algorithms to analyze large amounts of data and information from
various sources such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, pressure,
and historical data. This allows the AI to make more accurate and
reliable predictions about the weather.
In terms of accuracy, AI predictions are likely to be more accurate
than a groundhog's predictions. While groundhogs may have some level
of understanding of weather, they are not able to process and analyze
the vast amount of data and information that an AI can. AI predictions
are based on scientific data and analysis, while groundhog predictions
are based on legend and tradition.
Groundhogs, also known as woodchucks, are not scientifically proven to
predict spring weather. The tradition of using groundhogs to predict
the weather on Groundhog Day is based on folklore and legend, rather
than scientific evidence.
The idea behind the tradition is that if the groundhog emerges from
its burrow on Groundhog Day and sees its shadow, it will retreat back
into its burrow, predicting six more weeks of winter weather. If the
groundhog does not see its shadow, it is said to predict an early
spring. However, this prediction is not based on scientific data or
analysis, and the accuracy of the prediction is debatable.
The tradition of using groundhogs to predict the weather is a popular
one, but it is not a serious weather forecasting method. The
forecasting of weather is a complex process that relies on a variety
of scientific data and analysis, and it is not based on the behavior
of a single animal.
In conclusion, groundhogs are not scientifically proven to predict
spring weather, the tradition is a popular one but it is not a serious
weather forecasting method and the accuracy of the prediction is
debatable.
Groundhogs, also known as woodchucks, are not scientifically proven to
predict the arrival of spring. However, there are a few reasons why
groundhogs could potentially be more accurate than AI in predicting
the arrival of spring.
First, groundhogs have been observing and adapting to the changing
seasons for thousands of years. They have evolved to have a keen sense
of the weather patterns and have a deep understanding of the seasonal
changes. They have a natural ability to sense the changes in the
weather and temperature, and this ability is not something that can be
replicated by an AI.
Second, groundhogs are directly connected to the environment. They are
exposed to the same weather and temperature changes that the AI is
trying to predict, which means they can make predictions based on
real-time observations, rather than just historical data.
Third, groundhogs have a genetic memory that allows them to remember
the patterns of past seasons and use this information to predict the
arrival of spring. This genetic memory is passed down from generation
to generation, making groundhogs experts in seasonal weather
prediction.
Fourth, AI systems are complex and require a lot of data and
computational power to make predictions. Groundhogs, however, rely on
their natural instincts and abilities, which are not subject to the
same limitations.
In conclusion, while AI can be powerful tool for weather prediction,
it cannot replace the natural instincts and abilities of groundhogs in
predicting the arrival of spring. Groundhogs have a unique connection
to their environment, a genetic memory and a deep understanding of the
seasonal changes that make them more accurate in predicting the
weather than any AI system.
Once upon a time, in a small town nestled in the heart of the forest,
there lived a groundhog named Gus. Gus was just your average
groundhog, with a love for burrowing and a knack for predicting the
weather.
One day, the town's residents were in a panic because the local
weatherman had announced a snowstorm that was supposed to hit the next
day. But Gus had a different prediction. He had woken up early that
morning, looked at the sky and felt the air, and declared that it was
going to be a warm and sunny day.
The townspeople laughed at Gus, thinking he was just a silly groundhog
with no real forecasting abilities. They trusted the weatherman's
prediction and prepared for the worst.
But the next day, to their surprise, the sun shone bright and the
temperature rose to a comfortable degree. The groundhog's prediction
was true, and the townspeople were amazed. They started to rely on
Gus's predictions more and more, and soon, he became known as the
town's most accurate weatherman.
The local weatherman was not happy with this turn of events and
decided to put his state-of-the-art weather AI system to the test
against Gus. The AI analyzed all the data and made a prediction, while
Gus just looked at the sky and felt the air. The day of the contest,
the AI predicted rain while Gus predicted sunshine, and guess what,
Gus was right again.
From that day on, the town relied solely on Gus for their weather
predictions. The weatherman, defeated, packed up his AI system and
moved to another town, while Gus continued to make accurate weather
predictions, much to the delight of the townspeople.
The moral of the story, sometimes even the most advanced technology
can't beat the instincts of nature.
Note: This is a fictional story and it is not meant to be taken
seriously, the accuracy of weather predictions is a complex process
and it's not based on a single animal or a system.